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FC UFA vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
A. Gurenko 11'
5/4/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 31BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA37%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.20
FK Neftekhimik
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 122 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.23
FK Neftekhimik
1.11

allows per match

FC UFA
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.17

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
66%
FC UFA or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
63%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
16%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
34%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
68%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
32%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
52%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC UFA scores more
37%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
34%

FC UFA at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. Gurenko
46'
A. Kakhidze← K. Malyarov
46'
N. Abdokov← K. Morozov
46'
K. Shiltsov← R. Denisov
58'
Konstantin Shiltsov
58'
A. Nikitin← R. Magomedov
66'
Vadim Karpov
67'
K. Mullin← V. Lozhkin
75'
A. Budylin← S. Aliev
77'
N. Matskharashvili← S. Isaev
86'
Artem Gurenko
86'
V. Adaev← A. Gurenko

Statistics

FCFK
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: FC UFA 1–0 FK Neftekhimik

FC UFA beat FK Neftekhimik 1-0 in First League on May 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Gurenko (11').

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.