FC UFA 3–4 FC Sochi: Result & Stats | First League

FC UFA

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

FC Sochi

V. Lozhkin 45'

V. Adaev 38'

M. Ageyan 35'

M. Kramarič 90+4', 85'

O. Kozhemyakin 62'

V. Pisarskiy 4'

8/25/2024

First League · Round 7BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FC UFA33%

×Draw27%

FC Sochi40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.31

FC UFA

1.16

FC Sochi

1.31

FC Sochi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 38 away

1.23

creates per match

1.45

1.17

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

FC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

FC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

60%

FC UFA or FC Sochi

73%

Draw or FC Sochi

67%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

13%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

69%

FC UFA 2+ goals

32%

FC UFA 3+ goals

11%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

73%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

38%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

45%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC UFA scores more

33%

level

27%

FC Sochi scores more

40%

FC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

35'

38'

45'

46'

K. Suslov← V. Litvinov

46'

S. Guarirapa← V. Lazarev

46'

R. Bart← R. Magal

62'

O. Kozhemyakin

77'

S. Isaev← V. Adaev

77'

A. Shavaev← N. Matskharashvili

82'

K. Mullin← V. Lozhkin

82'

N. Burmistrov← R. Bart

82'

A. Makarov← K. Kravtsov

85'

90+2'

90'

90+4'

FC4-3-3

29

Nikitin

7

⚽

Pisarskiy

10

⚽2

Kramarič

89

▼

Lazarev

21

Saavedra

14

▼

Kravtsov

28

▼

Magal

4

▼

Litvinov

22

⚽

17

16

1

18

5

38

62

9

⚽

▼

Adaev

27

Anisimov

21

▼

Matskhara

97

Pasevich

11

⚽

▼

Lozhkin

88

⚽

▼

Ageyan

Manager: E. Kharlachev

77'▲S. Isaev←▼V. Adaev

77'▲A. Shavaev←▼N. Matskharashvili

82'▲K. Mullin←▼V. Lozhkin

90'▲V. Garaev←▼M. Ageyan

FC UFA substitutes

8Isaev22Shavaev72Mullin93Garaev10Gystarov40Chernov47Ushakhin

Manager: Robert Moreno

46'▲K. Suslov←▼V. Litvinov

46'▲S. Guarirapa←▼V. Lazarev

46'▲R. Bart←▼R. Magal

82'▲N. Burmistrov←▼R. Bart

82'▲A. Makarov←▼K. Kravtsov

FC Sochi substitutes

15Suslov23Guarirapa59Bart18Burmistrov88Makarov1Rudakov12Zabolotny24Khezhev33Alves37Chirkov72Shagiakhmetov77Safronov

First League: FC UFA 3–4 FC Sochi

FC Sochi beat FC UFA 4-3 in First League on August 25, 2024.

Goals: V. Pisarskiy (4'), M. Ageyan (35'), V. Adaev (38'), V. Lozhkin (45'), O. Kozhemyakin (62'), M. Kramarič (85', 90+4').

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.

FC UFA vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: FC UFA 3–4 FC Sochi