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FC Sochi vs FC UFA — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC UFA
FC UFA
K. Kravtsov 89', 54'
P. Meleshin 87', 69'
R. Magal 9'
V. Lozhkin 81'
D. Kutin 16'
11/22/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi57%
×Draw25%
FC UFA18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.62
FC UFA
0.78

FC Sochi creates 108% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
FC UFA
0.70

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
FC UFA
1.40

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
82%
FC Sochi or FC UFA
75%
Draw or FC UFA
43%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
31%
FC UFA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
80%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
48%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
22%
FC UFA 1+ goals
54%
FC UFA 2+ goals
18%
FC UFA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
76%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

FC UFA attack 0.70 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Sochi scores more
57%
level
25%
FC UFA scores more
18%

FC Sochi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
R. Magal
16'
D. Kutin
40'
Vadim Karpov
53'
Roman Pasevich
54'
K. Kravtsov
65'
P. Meleshin← V. Pisarskiy
65'
K. Nikitin← R. Bart
69'
P. Meleshin
70'
V. Lozhkin← N. Matskharashvili
74'
Denis Kutin
75'
I. Safronov← K. Zaika
75'
A. Makarov← M. Kramarič
76'
V. Adaev← A. Anisimov
81'
V. Lozhkin
82'
S. Isaev← M. Ageyan
87'
P. Meleshin
89'
K. Kravtsov
90+1'
Ruslan Magal
90+2'
Vladislav Adaev
90'
M. Chirkov← A. Makarov

Statistics

FCFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

FC Sochi 5 – 2 FC UFA

FC Sochi beat FC UFA 5-2 in First League on November 22, 2024.

Goals: R. Magal (9'), D. Kutin (16'), K. Kravtsov (54', 89'), P. Meleshin (69', 87'), V. Lozhkin (81').

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.