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FC UFA vs Baltika — First League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Baltika
Baltika
3/23/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 25BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA32%
×Draw28%
Baltika40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.11
Baltika
1.26

Baltika creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 108 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.23
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

FC UFA
1.17
Baltika
1.00

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
60%
FC UFA or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
68%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
13%
Baltika wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
67%
FC UFA 2+ goals
30%
FC UFA 3+ goals
10%
Baltika 1+ goals
72%
Baltika 2+ goals
36%
Baltika 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
45%
Baltika (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Baltika attack 1.35 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC UFA scores more
32%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
40%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC UFA 0 – 6 Baltika

Baltika beat FC UFA 6-0 in First League on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.