FC UFA 0–2 Baltika: Result & Stats | First League

FC UFA

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

D. Klenkin 90'

K. Malyarov 86'

10/1/2022

First League · Round 12BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA33%

×Draw28%

Baltika39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC UFAExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

FC UFA

1.11

Baltika

1.25

Baltika creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 109 away

1.23

creates per match

1.34

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC UFA

1.23

Baltika

1.34

allows per match

FC UFA

1.17

Baltika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw

61%

FC UFA or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

67%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+

13%

Baltika wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals

67%

FC UFA 2+ goals

30%

FC UFA 3+ goals

10%

Baltika 1+ goals

71%

Baltika 2+ goals

36%

Baltika 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)

45%

Baltika (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Baltika attack 1.34 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC UFA scores more

33%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

39%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Botaka-Yoboma← K. Pliev

29'

Erwing Jo Botaka-Ioboma

40'

48'

54'

54'

55'

59'

Egas Cacintura← I. Molteninov

59'

C. Carp← A. Golubev

61'

M. Kuzmin← M. Kašćelan

73'

D. Klenkin← V. Lazarev

73'

D. Barkov← T. Musaev

74'

Ivan Kukushkin

83'

A. Dudiev← E. Valiakhmetov

86'

K. Malyarov

90+3'

D. Akhatov← A. Sukhov

90+3'

V. Konyukhov← A. Masalov

90'

D. Klenkin

FC4-1-4-1

Baltika3-5-2

22

▼

Musaev

9

Guzina

3

⚽

Malyarov

89

▼

Lazarev

10

Kazaev

18

▼

Kašćelan

17

▼

26

21

5

67

81

26

6

3

▼

Pliev

33

▼

Sukhov

50

▼

Golubev

15

▼

Masalov

28

▼

7

10

9

Manager: D. Popov

15'▲E. Botaka-Yoboma←▼K. Pliev

59'▲Egas Cacintura←▼I. Molteninov

59'▲C. Carp←▼A. Golubev

90+3'▲D. Akhatov←▼A. Sukhov

90+3'▲V. Konyukhov←▼A. Masalov

FC UFA substitutes

2Botaka-Yoboma11Cacintura44Carp17Akhatov52Konyukhov5Ushakhin8Emeljanov19Dzantiev23Pogosov40Chernov69Khalilov71Vafiev

Manager: S. Ignashevich

61'▲M. Kuzmin←▼M. Kašćelan

73'▲D. Klenkin←▼V. Lazarev

73'▲D. Barkov←▼T. Musaev

83'▲A. Dudiev←▼E. Valiakhmetov

Baltika substitutes

6Kuzmin4Klenkin11Barkov8Dudiev1Latyshonok14Gogrichiani19Pryakhin23Putsko

Match Recap: FC UFA vs Baltika

Baltika beat FC UFA 2-0 in First League on October 1, 2022.

Goals: K. Malyarov (86'), D. Klenkin (90').

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.

FC UFA vs Baltika — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC UFA vs Baltika