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FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

FC UFA
FC UFA
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14BetBoom Arena
Big match
42%
FC UFA
model favours
42%28%30%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC UFA42%
×Draw28%
Arsenal Tula30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.27
Arsenal Tula
1.04

FC UFA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.38
Arsenal Tula
0.92

allows per match

FC UFA
1.16
Arsenal Tula
1.16

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
70%
FC UFA or Arsenal Tula
72%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
58%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
19%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
72%
FC UFA 2+ goals
36%
FC UFA 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.38 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + FC UFA defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC UFA scores more
42%
level
28%
Arsenal Tula scores more
30%

FC UFA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
UFA
WLLDW
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC UFA host Arsenal Tula

October 17, 2026: FC UFA take on Arsenal Tula in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC UFA host Arsenal Tula at BetBoom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.