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Arsenal Tula vs FC UFA — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC UFA
FC UFA
9/29/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Arsenal Tula47%
×Draw29%
FC UFA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.28
FC UFA
0.84

Arsenal Tula creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 50 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
FC UFA
0.70

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
FC UFA
1.40

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
76%
Arsenal Tula or FC UFA
71%
Draw or FC UFA
53%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
21%
FC UFA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
37%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
14%
FC UFA 1+ goals
57%
FC UFA 2+ goals
21%
FC UFA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
66%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + FC UFA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

FC UFA attack 0.70 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
47%
level
29%
FC UFA scores more
24%

Arsenal Tula at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arsenal Tula 0–0 FC UFA

Arsenal Tula and FC UFA drew 0-0 in First League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.