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FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
I. Chernyak 60'
E. Reyes 54'
K. Bolshakov 33' (pen)
5/18/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 33BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC UFA39%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Tula32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.19
Arsenal Tula
1.05

FC UFA creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.23
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

FC UFA
1.17
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
68%
FC UFA or Arsenal Tula
71%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
61%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
17%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
70%
FC UFA 2+ goals
33%
FC UFA 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
55%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.23 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + FC UFA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC UFA scores more
39%
level
29%
Arsenal Tula scores more
32%

FC UFA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
K. BolshakovPenalty
38'
Edarlyn Reyes
45'
Aleksey Berdnikov
46'
I. Moskalenchik← A. Berdnikov
54'
Nikita Matskharashvili
54'
E. Reyes
59'
S. Isaev← N. Matskharashvili
59'
I. Chernyak← V. Bocherov
60'
I. Chernyak
63'
D. Lipovoy← S. Tkachev
70'
N. Razdorskikh← M. Ahlinvi
73'
D. Akhatov← D. Stotskiy
73'
K. Mullin← V. Lozhkin
84'
A. Kalmykov← U. Đuranović
84'
I. Geloyan← E. Reyes
90'
Andrey Anisimov
90+4'
Mikhail Tsulaya

Statistics

FCArsenal
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

First League: FC UFA 1–2 Arsenal Tula

Arsenal Tula beat FC UFA 2-1 in First League on May 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Bolshakov (33' pen), E. Reyes (54'), I. Chernyak (60').

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.