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FC Tulsa vs Detroit City — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
Preview
00:30
Detroit City
Detroit City
8/9/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageONEOK Field
Big match
38%
FC Tulsa
model favours
38%26%36%

Detroit City are unbeaten in 13 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

FC Tulsa38%
×Draw26%
Detroit City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.38
Detroit City
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 78 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Detroit City
1.22

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Detroit City
1.31

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Detroit City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Detroit City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
64%
FC Tulsa or Detroit City
74%
Draw or Detroit City
62%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
18%
Detroit City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
75%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
40%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
16%
Detroit City 1+ goals
73%
Detroit City 2+ goals
38%
Detroit City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
52%
Detroit City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Detroit City away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Detroit City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Detroit City attack 1.22 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
38%
level
26%
Detroit City scores more
36%

FC Tulsa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches
  • 48% of Detroit City’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 65% of Detroit City’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tulsa
LLWLL
City
WWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Tulsa host Detroit City

August 9, 2026: FC Tulsa take on Detroit City in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Tulsa host Detroit City at ONEOK Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.