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FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
K. Sato 90', 48'
K. Tawaratsumida 88'
A. Esaka 72'
10/25/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 35Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FC Tokyo50%
×Draw25%
Fagiano Okayama25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.65
Fagiano Okayama
1.09

FC Tokyo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.64
Fagiano Okayama
0.96

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.23
Fagiano Okayama
1.67

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.27scores less
Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
75%
FC Tokyo or Fagiano Okayama
75%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
50%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
27%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
81%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
49%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
23%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
66%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
30%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
67%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 41 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.64 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + FC Tokyo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
50%
level
25%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
25%

FC Tokyo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
K. SatoFC TokyoFC Tokyo · F
9.2

Match Events

35'
Yugo Tatsuta
48'
K. Sato↳ T. Ko
59'
T. Kimura← H. Iwabuchi
59'
Lucao← K. Ichimi
68'
S. Anzai← K. Endo
68'
L. Nozawa← T. Nakagawa
71'
T. Yanagi← H. Kato
71'
Kamiya Yuta← R. Tabei
72'
A. Esaka↳ Kamiya Yuta
77'
K. Tawaratsumida← Marcos Guilherme
82'
Yoshitake Suzuki
88'
K. Tawaratsumida↳ K. Sato
89'
Werik Popo← A. Esaka
90+2'
T. Oka← Y. Nagatomo
90'
K. Sato↳ T. Ko

Possession

62%FC

Shots

11FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCFagiano
Overview
62%Possession38%
11Total Shots11
1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.17
5Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots11
5On Target5
1Off Target2
5Blocked4
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
547Total Passes320
443Accurate Passes226
81%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama

FC Tokyo beat Fagiano Okayama 3-1 in J1 League on October 25, 2025.

Goals: K. Sato (48', 90'), A. Esaka (72'), K. Tawaratsumida (88').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.