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Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
R. Tabei 61'
4/6/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 9City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama39%
×Draw26%
FC Tokyo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.38
FC Tokyo
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 40 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.38
FC Tokyo
1.27

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.35
FC Tokyo
1.38

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less
FC Tokyo+0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
65%
Fagiano Okayama or FC Tokyo
74%
Draw or FC Tokyo
61%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
18%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
75%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
40%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
16%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
73%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
38%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
52%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + FC Tokyo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Tokyo attack 1.27 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
39%
level
26%
FC Tokyo scores more
35%

Fagiano Okayama at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
Henrique TrevisanFC TokyoFC Tokyo · D
8.0

Match Events

18'
Kento Hashimoto
41'
Kaito Fujii
46'
R. Tabei← K. Fujii
50'
Masaya MatsumotoGoal cancelled
59'
Lucao← K. Ichimi
59'
Marcelo Ryan← K. Tawaratsumida
61'
R. Tabei
63'
K. Higashi← K. Hashimoto
63'
M. Kitahara← T. Nakagawa
78'
Kamiya Yuta← A. Esaka
81'
T. Oka← S. Anzai
81'
K. Yamashita← K. Sato
85'
Y. Yanagi← K. Abe
85'
H. Iwabuchi← T. Kimura

Possession

37%Fagiano

Shots

6Fagiano

Pass accuracy

46%Fagiano

Statistics

FagianoFC
Overview
37%Possession63%
6Total Shots14
0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.87
6Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots14
2On Target2
2Off Target5
2Blocked7
4Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
283Total Passes489
190Accurate Passes386
67%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo

Fagiano Okayama beat FC Tokyo 1-0 in J1 League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: R. Tabei (61').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.