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FC Thun vs FC Sion — Super League 2018

FC Thun
FC Thun
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Sion
FC Sion
E. Rastoder 65'
C. Ibayi 39'
Baltazar 15'
11/1/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun38%
×Draw22%
FC Sion40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
1.77
FC Sion
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Thun
2.14
FC Sion
1.44

allows per match

FC Thun
2.17
FC Sion
1.41

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par
FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
60%
FC Thun or FC Sion
78%
Draw or FC Sion
62%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
20%
FC Sion wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
83%
FC Thun 2+ goals
53%
FC Thun 3+ goals
26%
FC Sion 1+ goals
83%
FC Sion 2+ goals
54%
FC Sion 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
49%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Sion attack 1.44 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Thun scores more
38%
level
22%
FC Sion scores more
40%

FC Sion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
N. SteffenFC ThunFC Thun · G
8.7

Match Events

15'
Baltazar
28'
Lucien Dähler
39'
C. Ibayi↳ M. Heule
57'
J. Roth← K. Imeri
65'
E. Rastoder↳ C. Ibayi
68'
Justin Roth
69'
F. Meichtry← N. Reichmuth
69'
B. Labeau← C. Ibayi
70'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi
71'
T. Bouchlarhem← L. Chipperfield
71'
J. Lukembila← T. Berdayes
76'
D. Rrudhani← A. Kabacalman
79'
Theo Bouchlarhem
84'
M. Gutbub← E. Rastoder
85'
G. Montolio← M. Heule
86'
Marc Gutbub
90+2'
Franz-Ethan Meichtry

Possession

41%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots21
2.47Expected Goals (xG)3.94
6Corners8
19Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots21
3On Target7
10Off Target8
2Blocked6
12Inside Box15
3Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
286Total Passes414
214Accurate Passes328
75%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: FC Thun vs FC Sion

FC Thun beat FC Sion 2-1 in Super League on November 1, 2025.

Goals: Baltazar (15'), C. Ibayi (39'), E. Rastoder (65').

FC Sion controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.