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FC Sion vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Thun
FC Thun
K. Imeri 12'
10/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Sion39%
×Draw25%
FC Thun36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.45
FC Thun
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.54
FC Thun
1.51

allows per match

FC Sion
1.23
FC Thun
1.35

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more
FC Thun+0.36scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
64%
FC Sion or FC Thun
75%
Draw or FC Thun
61%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
19%
FC Thun wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
77%
FC Sion 2+ goals
42%
FC Sion 3+ goals
18%
FC Thun 1+ goals
75%
FC Thun 2+ goals
40%
FC Thun 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
52%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Thun defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Thun attack 1.51 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Sion scores more
39%
level
25%
FC Thun scores more
36%

FC Sion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. RacioppiFC SionFC Sion · G
8.7

Match Events

12'
K. Imeri
44'
Christopher Ibayi
46'
N. Rupp← M. Kait
46'
F. Meichtry← K. Imeri
59'
L. Chipperfield← J. Lukembila
64'
Brighton Labeau
68'
T. Berdayes← D. Rrudhani
70'
E. Rastoder← C. Ibayi
76'
N. Reichmuth← B. Labeau
80'
Baltazar← N. Sow
80'
W. Boteli← Y. Chouaref
84'
G. Montolio← V. Matoshi
86'
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
90+5'
Nils Reichmuth

Possession

61%FC

Shots

17FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots21
11Corners3
8Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots21
4On Target10
4Off Target8
9Blocked3
12Inside Box8
5Outside Box13
Passing
61%Possession39%
460Total Passes308
364Accurate Passes203
79%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
9Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls15
0Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Super League: FC Sion 0–1 FC Thun

FC Thun beat FC Sion 1-0 in Super League on October 25, 2025.

Goals: K. Imeri (12').

FC Sion controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.