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FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC Thun
FC Thun
Preview
16:00
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
11/7/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Stockhorn Arena
Big match
39%
FC Thun
model favours
39%23%37%

Both teams score in 100% of FC Thun’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Thun39%
×Draw23%
FC Basel 189337%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Thun
1.79
FC Basel 1893
1.65

allows per match

FC Thun
1.57
FC Basel 1893
1.52

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
63%
FC Thun or FC Basel 1893
77%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
61%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
20%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
81%
FC Thun 2+ goals
49%
FC Thun 3+ goals
23%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
80%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
48%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
51%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 1.79 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.65 + FC Thun defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Thun scores more
39%
level
23%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
37%

FC Thun at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Basel 1893 score first in only 24% of matches
  • FC Thun score first in only 30% of matches
  • FC Thun raise their game against the top half — 44% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower
  • 47% of FC Basel 1893’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 62% over 2.5)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Thun
Balanced
FC Basel 1893
Defensively solid
50%Possession54%
69%Pass accuracyBiggest gap82%
16.6Shots14.0
1.66xG1.78
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC ThunFC Basel 1893

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
FC Thun
1
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%
1–33–12–11–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Thun
LDWDL
1893
DLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Thun host FC Basel 1893

November 7, 2026: FC Thun take on FC Basel 1893 in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Thun host FC Basel 1893 at Stockhorn Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.