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FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

FC Thun
FC Thun
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
4/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Thun39%
×Draw23%
FC Basel 189337%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Thun
1.79
FC Basel 1893
1.65

allows per match

FC Thun
1.57
FC Basel 1893
1.52

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
63%
FC Thun or FC Basel 1893
77%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
61%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
20%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
81%
FC Thun 2+ goals
49%
FC Thun 3+ goals
23%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
80%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
48%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
51%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 1.79 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.65 + FC Thun defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Thun scores more
39%
level
23%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
37%

FC Thun at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893

FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 in Super League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.