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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Thun
FC Thun
2/1/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Basel 189349%
×Draw23%
FC Thun28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.79
FC Thun
1.29

FC Basel 1893 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 58 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.87
FC Thun
1.52

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.07
FC Thun
1.72

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
FC Thun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
72%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Thun
77%
Draw or FC Thun
51%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
27%
FC Thun wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
83%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
53%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
26%
FC Thun 1+ goals
72%
FC Thun 2+ goals
37%
FC Thun 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
64%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.87 + FC Thun defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Thun attack 1.52 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
49%
level
23%
FC Thun scores more
28%

FC Basel 1893 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC Thun

FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 in Super League on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.