Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Stăuceni vs Victoria Bardar — Super Liga 2026

FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
4/18/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 6Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Stăuceni38%
×Draw24%
Victoria Bardar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Stăuceni
1.58
Victoria Bardar
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Stăuceni
1.09
Victoria Bardar
1.69

allows per match

FC Stăuceni
1.45
Victoria Bardar
2.06

finishing

FC Stăuceni+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Stăuceni ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Stăuceni or draw
62%
FC Stăuceni or Victoria Bardar
76%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
62%

Winning margin

FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
19%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
79%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
47%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
21%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
46%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
50%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Stăuceni at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Stăuceni attack 1.09 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Victoria Bardar attack 1.69 + FC Stăuceni defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Stăuceni scores more
38%
level
24%
Victoria Bardar scores more
38%

FC Stăuceni at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Stăuceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FC Stăuceni 3–1 Victoria Bardar

FC Stăuceni beat Victoria Bardar 3-1 in Super Liga on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Complexul Sport Olimp Stăuceni in Stăuceni.