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FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
9/23/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 7Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC St. Pauli46%
×Draw25%
FC Schalke 0429%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.60
FC Schalke 04
1.22

FC St. Pauli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.73
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
1.03
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
71%
FC St. Pauli or FC Schalke 04
75%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
54%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
24%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
80%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
47%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
22%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
70%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
34%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
61%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.73 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
46%
level
25%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
29%

FC St. Pauli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC St. Pauli vs FC Schalke 04

FC St. Pauli beat FC Schalke 04 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.