FC Schalke 04 3–1 FC St. Pauli: Result & Stats

FC Schalke 04

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC St. Pauli

3/1/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 24VELTINS-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Schalke 0447%

×Draw23%

FC St. Pauli30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Schalke 04Expected goals in this matchFC St. Pauli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.40

FC Schalke 04

1.82

FC St. Pauli

1.40

FC Schalke 04 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 102 away

1.93

creates per match

1.37

1.43

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

FC Schalke 04

1.93

FC St. Pauli

1.37

allows per match

FC Schalke 04

1.43

FC St. Pauli

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

FC St. Pauli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw

70%

FC Schalke 04 or FC St. Pauli

77%

Draw or FC St. Pauli

53%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

26%

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

84%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

54%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

27%

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals

75%

FC St. Pauli 2+ goals

41%

FC St. Pauli 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

61%

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.93 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more

47%

level

23%

FC St. Pauli scores more

30%

FC Schalke 04 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff