FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

FC St. Pauli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Nurnberg

D. Kyereh 74' (pen)

T. Duman 90+2'

4/29/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 32Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

FC St. Pauli50%

×Draw24%

FC Nurnberg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC St. PauliExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.21

FC St. Pauli

1.76

FC Nurnberg

1.21

FC St. Pauli creates 45% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 121 away

1.73

creates per match

1.38

1.03

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

FC St. Pauli

1.73

FC Nurnberg

1.38

allows per match

FC St. Pauli

1.03

FC Nurnberg

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw

74%

FC St. Pauli or FC Nurnberg

76%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

50%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+

27%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals

83%

FC St. Pauli 2+ goals

52%

FC St. Pauli 3+ goals

26%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

70%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

34%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)

66%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.73 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.76

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more

50%

level

24%

FC Nurnberg scores more

26%

FC St. Pauli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

D. Kyereh

FC St. Pauli · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Afeez Aremu

40'

Finn Ole Becker

41'

R. Benatelli← A. Aremu

46'

N. Dovedan← P. Köpke

63'

I. Matanović← M. Dittgen

63'

F. Nürnberger← J. Geis

74'

D. KyerehPenalty

76'

T. Duman← A. Sørensen

81'

M. Schäffler← K. Fischer

81'

E. Shuranov← L. Schleimer

88'

L. Ritzka← C. Buchtmann

89'

E. Amenyido← L. Daschner

89'

S. Makienok← D. Kyereh

90+2'

T. Duman↳ M. Schäffler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots10

7Corners1

18Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target2

9Off Target4

5Blocked4

6Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

605Total Passes345

506Accurate Passes236

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1