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FC Nurnberg vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
J. Medić 33'
1/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

FC Nurnberg41%
×Draw25%
FC St. Pauli34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nurnberg
1.54
FC St. Pauli
1.38

FC Nurnberg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 102 away

creates per match

FC Nurnberg
1.35
FC St. Pauli
1.37

allows per match

FC Nurnberg
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.72

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw
66%
FC Nurnberg or FC St. Pauli
75%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
59%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
20%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
79%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
45%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
20%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
75%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
40%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
55%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more
41%
level
25%
FC St. Pauli scores more
34%

FC Nurnberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. MedićFC St. PauliFC St. Pauli · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
Manolis Saliakas
33'
J. Medić↳ L. Paqarada
46'
M. Beifus← A. Dźwigała
59'
O. Afolayan← C. Metcalfe
64'
B. Goller← J. Castrop
64'
E. Shuranov← C. Daferner
72'
Maurides← D. Otto
81'
Jermain Nischalke← M. Dæhli
81'
F. Lohkemper← K. Duah
86'
Jermain Nischalke
86'
Nikola Vasilj
90'
F. Hübner← C. Schindler
90'
A. Aremu← L. Daschner

Possession

45%FC

Shots

23FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
23Total Shots9
2Corners2
8Fouls13
Shots
23Total Shots9
4On Target2
12Off Target5
7Blocked2
12Inside Box8
11Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
402Total Passes509
287Accurate Passes370
71%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Nurnberg vs FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli beat FC Nurnberg 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 29, 2023.

Goals: J. Medić (33').

FC St. Pauli controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 23.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nürnberg.