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FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
12/6/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC ST. Gallen54%
×Draw22%
Yverdon Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.96
Yverdon Sport
1.25

FC ST. Gallen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
Yverdon Sport
1.23

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
Yverdon Sport
1.60

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
76%
FC ST. Gallen or Yverdon Sport
78%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
46%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
31%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
86%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
58%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
31%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
71%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
36%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
69%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
54%
level
22%
Yverdon Sport scores more
24%

FC ST. Gallen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC ST. Gallen 4–0 Yverdon Sport

FC ST. Gallen beat Yverdon Sport 4-0 in Super League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.