FC ST. Gallen 1–0 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

FC ST. Gallen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Zurich

12/16/2023

Super League · Round 18kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

FC ST. Gallen48%

×Draw23%

FC Zurich29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ST. GallenExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.34

FC ST. Gallen

1.78

FC Zurich

1.34

FC ST. Gallen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 147 away

1.89

creates per match

1.31

1.38

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.89

FC Zurich

1.31

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen

1.38

FC Zurich

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw

71%

FC ST. Gallen or FC Zurich

77%

Draw or FC Zurich

52%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

26%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

83%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

53%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

26%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

74%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

39%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

62%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.38 · 146 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.67 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.89 + FC Zurich defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more

48%

level

23%

FC Zurich scores more

29%

FC ST. Gallen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff