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FC Sochi vs FC UFA — First League 2024

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
Preview
15:00
FC UFA
FC UFA
10/10/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Fisht Olympic Stadium
60%
FC Sochi
model favours
60%24%15%

FC Sochi win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Sochi60%
×Draw24%
FC UFA15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.66
FC UFA
0.70

FC Sochi creates 137% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
2.00
FC UFA
0.65

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.74
FC UFA
1.32

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
85%
FC Sochi or FC UFA
76%
Draw or FC UFA
40%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
34%
FC UFA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
49%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
23%
FC UFA 1+ goals
50%
FC UFA 2+ goals
16%
FC UFA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
80%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.00 + FC UFA defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC UFA attack 0.65 + FC Sochi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Sochi scores more
60%
level
24%
FC UFA scores more
15%

FC Sochi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Sochi
DLWDD
UFA
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Sochi vs FC UFA — Match Preview

FC Sochi face FC UFA on October 10, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Sochi host FC UFA at Fisht Olympic Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.