FC Sochi 1–3 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Moscow

A. Zinkovskiy 39'

M. Kislyak 90'

I. Oblyakov 68' (pen), 58' (pen)

9/22/2025

Premier League · Round 9Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Sochi39%

×Draw26%

CSKA Moscow35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

FC Sochi

1.38

CSKA Moscow

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.34

1.24

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.69

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

FC Sochi

1.24

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

65%

FC Sochi or CSKA Moscow

74%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

61%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

18%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

75%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

40%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

16%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

37%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

53%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.69 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + FC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Sochi scores more

39%

level

26%

CSKA Moscow scores more

35%

FC Sochi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Kislyak

CSKA Moscow · M

9.2

Match Events

39'

A. Zinkovskiy↳ Y. Attiyat Allah

46'

Henrique Carmo← R. Di Luciano

46'

Alerrandro← A. Shumansky

48'

Henrique Carmo

49'

Zakhar Fedorov

55'

Henrique CarmoPenalty confirmed

57'

Martin Kramarič

58'

I. OblyakovPenalty

68'

Roman Ezhov

68'

I. OblyakovPenalty

73'

K. Zaika← R. Ezhov

73'

M. Mukhin← Z. Fedorov

73'

A. Kovalenko← D. Vasiljev

77'

I. Saavedra← K. Kravtsov

80'

Alerrandro

83'

R. Villagra←

84'

R. Bart← S. Volkov

90+1'

D. Abdulkadyrov← A. Bandikyan

90'

M. Kislyak↳ D. Krugovoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCCSKA

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots15

12Corners5

15Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target6

6Off Target4

4Blocked5

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

316Total Passes518

242Accurate Passes447

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2