CSKA Moscow 0–1 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Sochi

M. Kramaric 11' (pen)

4/12/2026

Premier League · Round 24VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

CSKA Moscow56%

×Draw23%

FC Sochi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

CSKA Moscow

1.77

FC Sochi

0.99

CSKA Moscow creates 79% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

1.87

creates per match

1.08

0.90

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

FC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

FC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

79%

CSKA Moscow or FC Sochi

77%

Draw or FC Sochi

44%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

31%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

83%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

53%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

26%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

63%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

26%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

73%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + FC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Sochi attack 1.08 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

56%

level

23%

FC Sochi scores more

21%

CSKA Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

A. Degtev

FC Sochi · G

8.3

Match Events

9'

Vyacheslav LitvinovPenalty confirmed

11'

M. KramaricPenalty

46'

Henrique Carmo← D. Kozlov

46'

S. Volkov← A. Makarchuk

46'

G. Furtado← M. Kramaric

52'

Aleksandr Kovalenko

62'

Aleksandr Degtev

68'

T. Musaev← D. Barinov

69'

A. Zinkovskiy← M. Ignatov

70'

V. Iljin← Z. Fedorov

77'

Gustavo Furtado

78'

Moises← M. Gajic

82'

D. Vasiljev← A. Kovalenko

87'

M. Voronov← K. Glebov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKAFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots12

12Corners2

8Fouls26

Shots

21Total Shots12

8On Target6

8Off Target3

5Blocked3

7Inside Box8

14Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

538Total Passes259

447Accurate Passes166

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves8

Discipline

8Fouls26

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1