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FC Sochi vs Akron — Premier League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Akron
Akron
7/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC Sochi48%
×Draw24%
Akron28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.67
Akron
1.23

FC Sochi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.69
Akron
1.22

allows per match

FC Sochi
1.24
Akron
1.66

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
72%
FC Sochi or Akron
76%
Draw or Akron
52%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
25%
Akron wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
50%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
23%
Akron 1+ goals
71%
Akron 2+ goals
35%
Akron 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
63%
Akron (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.69 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Akron attack 1.22 + FC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Sochi scores more
48%
level
24%
Akron scores more
28%

FC Sochi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Sochi 0 – 4 Akron

Akron beat FC Sochi 4-0 in Premier League on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi.