Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akron vs PFC Sochi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
2/21/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Akron21%
×Draw21%
PFC Sochi59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.19
PFC Sochi
2.13

PFC Sochi creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Akron
1.38
PFC Sochi
3.33

allows per match

Akron
0.92
PFC Sochi
1.00

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Akron or draw
41%
Akron or PFC Sochi
79%
Draw or PFC Sochi
79%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
8%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
70%
Akron 2+ goals
33%
Akron 3+ goals
12%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
88%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
63%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
26%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.38 + PFC Sochi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

PFC Sochi attack 3.33 + Akron defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Akron scores more
21%
level
21%
PFC Sochi scores more
59%

PFC Sochi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akron vs PFC Sochi

PFC Sochi beat Akron 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 21, 2023.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.