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FC Slutsk vs FC Gomel — Premier League 2018

FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
6/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Slutsk33%
×Draw27%
FC Gomel39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Slutsk
1.16
FC Gomel
1.28

FC Gomel creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 111 away

creates per match

FC Slutsk
1.08
FC Gomel
1.18

allows per match

FC Slutsk
1.39
FC Gomel
1.23

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw
61%
FC Slutsk or FC Gomel
73%
Draw or FC Gomel
67%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+
14%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals
69%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
32%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
11%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
72%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
37%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
46%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.08 + FC Gomel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC Gomel attack 1.18 + FC Slutsk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Slutsk scores more
33%
level
27%
FC Gomel scores more
39%

FC Gomel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Slutsk vs FC Gomel

FC Gomel beat FC Slutsk 3-0 in Premier League on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Slutsk.