FC Gomel 1–2 FC Slutsk: Result & Stats

FC Gomel

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Slutsk

8/3/2024

Premier League · Round 16Stadyen Central'ny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Gomel48%

×Draw26%

FC Slutsk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GomelExpected goals in this matchFC Slutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.03

FC Gomel

1.48

FC Slutsk

1.03

FC Gomel creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 120 away

1.39

creates per match

0.88

1.19

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Gomel

1.39

FC Slutsk

0.88

allows per match

FC Gomel

1.19

FC Slutsk

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

FC Slutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw

74%

FC Gomel or FC Slutsk

74%

Draw or FC Slutsk

52%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+

24%

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals

77%

FC Gomel 2+ goals

43%

FC Gomel 3+ goals

19%

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

64%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

28%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)

64%

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.57 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.39 + FC Slutsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Slutsk attack 0.88 + FC Gomel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Gomel scores more

48%

level

26%

FC Slutsk scores more

26%

FC Gomel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff