FC Slutsk 0–3 Bate Borisov: Result & Stats

FC Slutsk

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Bate Borisov

V. Yatskevich 90'

Y. Charles 68'

N. Neskoromnyi 54'

9/13/2025

Premier League · Round 21Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Slutsk27%

×Draw26%

Bate Borisov46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SlutskExpected goals in this matchBate Borisov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.44

FC Slutsk

1.04

Bate Borisov

1.44

Bate Borisov creates 38% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 112 away

1.11

creates per match

1.47

1.42

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

FC Slutsk

1.11

Bate Borisov

1.47

allows per match

FC Slutsk

1.42

Bate Borisov

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Bate Borisov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw

54%

FC Slutsk or Bate Borisov

74%

Draw or Bate Borisov

73%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

10%

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

65%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

28%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

9%

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

76%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

42%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

37%

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.11 + Bate Borisov defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bate Borisov attack 1.47 + FC Slutsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Slutsk scores more

27%

level

26%

Bate Borisov scores more

46%

Bate Borisov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Yao Jean Charles Olivier

29'

Arthur Bougnone

54'

N. Neskoromnyi

63'

Ilya Grishchenko

63'

N. Khrisanfov← V. Kurlovich

66'

V. Sotnikov← A. Svirepa

68'

Y. Charles↳ A. Rakhmanov

69'

A. Sokolovskiy← A. Anufriev

69'

V. Chernyavskiy← A. Rum

76'

M. Zhumabekov← A. Bougnone

76'

K. Apanasevich← I. Kargbo

76'

V. Yatskevich← Y. Charles

89'

Vasiliy Chernyavskiy

90+7'

Maksim Zhumabekov

90+7'

Ilya Rashchenya

90+2'

E. Grivenev← M. Telesh

90+2'

V. Rusenchik← E. Rusakov

90'

V. Yatskevich↳ K. Apanasevich

Statistics

FCBate

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0