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Bate Borisov vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
D. Antilevskiy 70', 36', 25'
D. Laptev 57'
D. Girs 53'
D. Pletnev 23'
I. Dubinets 14'
10/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bate Borisov54%
×Draw24%
FC Slutsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.71
FC Slutsk
0.99

Bate Borisov creates 73% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.81
FC Slutsk
0.85

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.12
FC Slutsk
1.61

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
78%
Bate Borisov or FC Slutsk
76%
Draw or FC Slutsk
46%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
30%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
82%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
51%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
24%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
63%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
26%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
71%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
54%
level
24%
FC Slutsk scores more
22%

Bate Borisov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
I. Dubinets
23'
D. Pletnev
25'
D. Antilevskiy
36'
D. Antilevskiy
46'
I. Mikhnyuk← I. Dubinets
53'
D. Girs
57'
D. Laptev
58'
K. Chernook← D. Podstrelov
62'
Sergey Rusak
66'
A. Kren← V. Sychev
70'
D. Antilevskiy
71'
S. Glebko← D. Pletnev
78'
S. Islamović← D. Antilevskiy
83'
A. Shestyuk← D. Laptev

Statistics

BateFC
Overview
5Corners4

Premier League: Bate Borisov 4–3 FC Slutsk

Bate Borisov beat FC Slutsk 4-3 in Premier League on October 29, 2023.

Goals: I. Dubinets (14'), D. Pletnev (23'), D. Antilevskiy (25', 36', 70'), D. Girs (53'), D. Laptev (57').

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.