FC Sion 1–1 FC Winterthur: Result & Stats

FC Sion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Winterthur

W. Boteli 66'

A. Hunziker 5'

3/7/2026

Super League · Round 29Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion53%

×Draw22%

FC Winterthur25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SionExpected goals in this matchFC Winterthur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.31

FC Sion

2.00

FC Winterthur

1.31

FC Sion creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.54

creates per match

1.39

1.23

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

FC Sion

1.54

FC Winterthur

1.39

allows per match

FC Sion

1.23

FC Winterthur

2.47

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more

FC Winterthur-0.09on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Winterthur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw

75%

FC Sion or FC Winterthur

78%

Draw or FC Winterthur

47%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+

31%

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals

86%

FC Sion 2+ goals

59%

FC Sion 3+ goals

32%

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

73%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

38%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)

68%

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.47 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Winterthur defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Winterthur attack 1.39 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Sion scores more

53%

level

22%

FC Winterthur scores more

25%

FC Sion at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Kapino

FC Winterthur · G

8.6

Match Events

5'

A. Hunziker↳ N. Burkart

15'

Roman Buess

46'

F. Surdez← T. Berdayes

46'

T. Golliard← R. Buess

60'

B. Kololli← L. Chipperfield

60'

W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi

66'

W. Boteli↳ B. Kololli

69'

R. Schneider← A. Jankewitz

71'

Stéphane Cueni

78'

B. Dansoko← F. Rohner

78'

T. Citherlet← L. Luthi

81'

Jan Kronig

84'

Marquinhos Cipriano← N. Hefti

85'

J. Lukembila← Y. Chouaref

87'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

24Total Shots11

1.67Expected Goals (xG)0.69

9Corners4

15Fouls18

Shots

24Total Shots11

7On Target4

9Off Target3

8Blocked4

15Inside Box9

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

515Total Passes247

454Accurate Passes170

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0