FC Seoul 1–2 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

FC Seoul

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Beijing Guoan

11/21/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Seoul64%

×Draw20%

Beijing Guoan16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SeoulExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.90

FC Seoul

2.05

Beijing Guoan

0.90

FC Seoul creates 128% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.10

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Seoul

2.10

Beijing Guoan

1.00

allows per match

FC Seoul

0.80

Beijing Guoan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw

84%

FC Seoul or Beijing Guoan

80%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

36%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+

40%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals

87%

FC Seoul 2+ goals

61%

FC Seoul 3+ goals

33%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

59%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

23%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)

80%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 2.10 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + FC Seoul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Seoul scores more

64%

level

20%

Beijing Guoan scores more

16%

FC Seoul at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff