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Beijing Guoan vs FC Seoul — AFC Champions League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
11/30/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Beijing Guoan42%
×Draw25%
FC Seoul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.54
FC Seoul
1.35

Beijing Guoan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
1.20
FC Seoul
1.00

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.70
FC Seoul
1.89

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
67%
Beijing Guoan or FC Seoul
75%
Draw or FC Seoul
58%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
21%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
79%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
45%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
20%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
74%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
39%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
56%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + FC Seoul defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Seoul attack 1.00 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Seoul scores more
33%

Beijing Guoan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs FC Seoul

Beijing Guoan beat FC Seoul 3-1 in AFC Champions League on November 30, 2020.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.