FC Schalke 04 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
FC Schalke 0435%
FC Ingolstadt 0438%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 65 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Schalke 04 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Schalke 04 attack 1.11 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18
FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.75 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
FC Ingolstadt 04 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Schalke 04 substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Schalke 04 host FC Ingolstadt 04 on Saturday, 21 January 2017 at 14:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Bundesliga: FC Schalke 04 1–0 FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Schalke 04 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 in Bundesliga on January 21, 2017.
Goals: G. Burgstaller (90+2').
FC Schalke 04 controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 14.
The match was played at VELTINS-Arena in Gelsenkirchen.