FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Schalke 04

P. Groß 41' (pen)

D. Avdijaj 2'

5/20/2017

Bundesliga · Round 34Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0454%

×Draw23%

FC Schalke 0423%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.15

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.88

FC Schalke 04

1.15

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 63 away

1.60

creates per match

0.89

1.40

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.60

FC Schalke 04

0.89

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.40

FC Schalke 04

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

77%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or FC Schalke 04

77%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

46%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

31%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

85%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

56%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

29%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

68%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

32%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

70%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.60 + FC Schalke 04 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Schalke 04 attack 0.89 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

54%

level

23%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

23%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Fährmann

FC Schalke 04 · G

8.4

Match Events

2'

D. Avdijaj↳ L. Goretzka

41'

P. GroßPenalty

47'

Darío Lezcano

63'

Benjamin Stambouli

76'

M. Leckie← S. Kittel

77'

W. McKennie← D. Avdijaj

85'

L. Hinterseer← P. Groß

86'

K. Huntelaar← G. Burgstaller

89'

A. Morales← Roger

90'

Bernard Tekpetey

90'

B. Tekpetey← Coke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots9

6Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

8On Target3

5Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

422Total Passes418

315Accurate Passes312

75%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3