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FC Saarbrücken vs Jahn Regensburg — League #80 2026

FC Saarbrücken
FC Saarbrücken
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg
12/16/2023League #80League #80 · Round 19Stadion Ludwigspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Saarbrücken47%
×Draw24%
Jahn Regensburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Saarbrücken
1.71
Jahn Regensburg
1.28

FC Saarbrücken creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Saarbrücken
2.00
Jahn Regensburg
1.14

allows per match

FC Saarbrücken
1.43
Jahn Regensburg
1.43

finishing

FC Saarbrücken+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Saarbrücken ↓

Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Saarbrücken or draw
71%
FC Saarbrücken or Jahn Regensburg
76%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg
53%

Winning margin

FC Saarbrücken wins by 2+
25%
Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Saarbrücken 1+ goals
82%
FC Saarbrücken 2+ goals
51%
FC Saarbrücken 3+ goals
24%
Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
72%
Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
37%
Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Saarbrücken (draw refunded)
62%
Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Saarbrücken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Saarbrücken attack 2.00 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.14 + FC Saarbrücken defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Saarbrücken scores more
47%
level
24%
Jahn Regensburg scores more
29%

FC Saarbrücken at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Saarbrücken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #80: FC Saarbrücken 2–2 Jahn Regensburg

FC Saarbrücken and Jahn Regensburg drew 2-2 in League #80 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ludwigspark in Saarbrücken.