FC Saarbrucken 3–2 Jahn Regensburg: Result & Stats

FC Saarbrucken

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Jahn Regensburg

8/11/2019

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundHermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Saarbrucken36%

×Draw22%

Jahn Regensburg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SaarbruckenExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.83

FC Saarbrucken

1.67

Jahn Regensburg

1.83

Jahn Regensburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FC Saarbrucken

1.67

Jahn Regensburg

2.00

allows per match

FC Saarbrucken

1.67

Jahn Regensburg

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Saarbrucken+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Saarbrucken ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC Saarbrucken or draw

58%

FC Saarbrucken or Jahn Regensburg

78%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

64%

Winning margin

FC Saarbrucken wins by 2+

18%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FC Saarbrucken 1+ goals

81%

FC Saarbrucken 2+ goals

50%

FC Saarbrucken 3+ goals

23%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

84%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

54%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

FC Saarbrucken (draw refunded)

46%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Saarbrucken at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Saarbrucken attack 1.67 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Jahn Regensburg attack 2.00 + FC Saarbrucken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Saarbrucken scores more

36%

level

22%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

42%

Jahn Regensburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff