FC Rostov 0–0 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

FC Rostov

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moscow

6/1/2025

Cup · FinalStadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Rostov34%

×Draw26%

CSKA Moscow39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RostovExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

FC Rostov

1.25

CSKA Moscow

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

1.58

creates per match

1.58

1.11

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

FC Rostov

1.58

CSKA Moscow

1.58

allows per match

FC Rostov

1.11

CSKA Moscow

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw

61%

FC Rostov or CSKA Moscow

74%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

66%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+

15%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals

71%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

36%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

13%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

47%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.58 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + FC Rostov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Rostov scores more

34%

level

26%

CSKA Moscow scores more

39%

CSKA Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff