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CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov — Premier League 2018

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
4/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CSKA Moscow53%
×Draw24%
FC Rostov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.70
FC Rostov
1.04

CSKA Moscow creates 63% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.87
FC Rostov
1.18

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.90
FC Rostov
1.52

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

FC Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
77%
CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov
76%
Draw or FC Rostov
47%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
29%
FC Rostov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
82%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
51%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
24%
FC Rostov 1+ goals
65%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
28%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
69%
FC Rostov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + FC Rostov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC Rostov attack 1.18 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Rostov scores more
23%

CSKA Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov

CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 21, 2026.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.