FC Rostov 2–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

FC Rostov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Baltika

Ronaldo 36'

K. Shchetinin 33'

R. Fernández 45+2'

5/19/2024

Premier League · Round 29Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Rostov39%

×Draw28%

Baltika33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RostovExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

FC Rostov

1.27

Baltika

1.14

FC Rostov creates 11% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

1.42

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

FC Rostov

1.42

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

FC Rostov

1.18

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw

67%

FC Rostov or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

61%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+

17%

Baltika wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals

72%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

36%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

14%

Baltika 1+ goals

68%

Baltika 2+ goals

32%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

54%

Baltika (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.42 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baltika attack 1.10 + FC Rostov defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Rostov scores more

39%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

33%

FC Rostov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

K. Shchetinin

FC Rostov · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

Alex Fernandes

33'

K. Shchetinin↳ E. Golenkov

34'

Roberto Fernández

36'

Ronaldo↳ I. Aznaurov

45+2'

R. Fernández

46'

D. Kozlov← Alex

46'

A. Osipov← K. Kaplenko

47'

Andrey Langovich

56'

N. Komlichenko← I. Aznaurov

56'

K. Bayramyan← D. Utkin

57'

Danila Kozlov

61'

D. Rybchinskiy← Y. Kovalev

72'

Kevin Andrade

75'

M. Kuzmin← K. Bistrović

81'

A. Koltakov← E. Golenkov

82'

Oumar Sako

84'

V. Melekhin← Ronaldo

86'

V. Lazarev← R. Fernández

88'

Aleksandr Osipov

89'

Aleksey Koltakov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBaltika

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots13

10Corners9

7Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots13

11On Target4

8Off Target4

1Blocked5

12Inside Box10

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

386Total Passes299

275Accurate Passes197

71%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

7Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides8