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Baltika vs FC Rostov — Premier League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
K. Bistrović 90+1'
Á. Henríquez 86'
E. Golenkov 43'
D. Utkin 16'
9/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika44%
×Draw27%
FC Rostov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.40
FC Rostov
1.08

Baltika creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
FC Rostov
1.19

allows per match

Baltika
0.97
FC Rostov
1.52

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

FC Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
71%
Baltika or FC Rostov
73%
Draw or FC Rostov
56%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
21%
FC Rostov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
75%
Baltika 2+ goals
41%
Baltika 3+ goals
17%
FC Rostov 1+ goals
66%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
29%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
60%
FC Rostov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + FC Rostov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Rostov attack 1.19 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baltika scores more
44%
level
27%
FC Rostov scores more
29%

Baltika at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. BistrovićBaltikaBaltika · M
7.9

Match Events

16'
D. Utkin
43'
E. Golenkov↳ A. Mironov
46'
K. Bistrović← A. Galoyan
59'
R. Akbashev← A. Mironov
59'
A. Langovich← I. Vakhania
61'
Khoren Bayramyan
62'
Gedeon Guzina
66'
Á. Henríquez← G. Guzina
70'
T. Musaev← M. Kuzmin
70'
N. Komlichenko← E. Golenkov
80'
T. Avanesyan← S. Pryakhin
83'
D. Prokhin← D. Utkin
83'
A. Ionov← M. Mohebi
86'
Á. Henríquez↳ R. Fernández
90+1'
K. Bistrović

Possession

50%Baltika

Shots

14Baltika

Pass accuracy

48%Baltika

Statistics

BaltikaFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots13
5Corners1
10Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target7
5Off Target4
4Blocked2
4Inside Box5
10Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
394Total Passes411
248Accurate Passes274
63%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Premier League: Baltika 2–2 FC Rostov

Baltika and FC Rostov drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 16, 2023.

Goals: D. Utkin (16'), E. Golenkov (43'), Á. Henríquez (86'), K. Bistrović (90+1').

Baltika controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.