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FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs FC Holzhausen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Holzhausen
FC Holzhausen
O. C. Ugondu 78', 45'
K. Muller 59'
N. Schuon 5'
5/7/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen46%
×Draw22%
FC Holzhausen32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.89
FC Holzhausen
1.54

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
FC Holzhausen
1.59

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
FC Holzhausen
1.91

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
FC Holzhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

FC Holzhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
68%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or FC Holzhausen
78%
Draw or FC Holzhausen
54%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
25%
FC Holzhausen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
85%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
56%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
29%
FC Holzhausen 1+ goals
79%
FC Holzhausen 2+ goals
45%
FC Holzhausen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
59%
FC Holzhausen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

FC Holzhausen away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + FC Holzhausen defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Holzhausen attack 1.59 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
46%
level
22%
FC Holzhausen scores more
32%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Schuon
45'
O. C. Ugondu
59'
K. Muller
78'
O. C. Ugondu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs FC Holzhausen

FC Rielasingen-Arlen and FC Holzhausen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 7, 2023.

Goals: N. Schuon (5'), O. C. Ugondu (45', 78'), K. Muller (59').

The match was played at Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2 in Rielasingen-Worblingen.