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FC Holzhausen vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Holzhausen
FC Holzhausen
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
L. Pantel 90+3'
C. Konz 77'
F. Pfeifhofer 46'
K. Muller 37'
P. Schoch 30', 26'
J. Obika 71'
O. C. Ugondu 39', 13'
10/22/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 14Panoramastadion Holzhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Holzhausen49%
×Draw22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Holzhausen
1.97
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.47

FC Holzhausen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Holzhausen
1.82
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

FC Holzhausen
1.68
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

FC Holzhausen+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Holzhausen ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Holzhausen or draw
71%
FC Holzhausen or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
78%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
51%

Winning margin

FC Holzhausen wins by 2+
28%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Holzhausen 1+ goals
86%
FC Holzhausen 2+ goals
58%
FC Holzhausen 3+ goals
31%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
77%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
43%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Holzhausen (draw refunded)
63%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Holzhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Holzhausen attack 1.82 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + FC Holzhausen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Holzhausen scores more
49%
level
22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
29%

FC Holzhausen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Holzhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
O. C. Ugondu
26'
P. Schoch
30'
P. Schoch
37'
K. Muller
39'
O. C. Ugondu
46'
F. Pfeifhofer
70'
J. Schmidtke
70'
J. Schmidtke
71'
J. Obika
77'
C. Konz
90+3'
L. Pantel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Holzhausen vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FC Holzhausen beat FC Rielasingen-Arlen 6-3 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 22, 2022.

Goals: O. C. Ugondu (13', 39'), P. Schoch (26', 30'), K. Muller (37'), F. Pfeifhofer (46'), J. Obika (71'), C. Konz (77'), L. Pantel (90+3').

The match was played at Panoramastadion Holzhausen in Sulz am Neckar.