FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1–0 CFR Pforzheim

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CFR Pforzheim

5/28/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 37Kunstrasenplatz Talwiese Rielasingen K

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen41%

×Draw23%

CFR Pforzheim36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Rielasingen-ArlenExpected goals in this matchCFR Pforzheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.59

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.70

CFR Pforzheim

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

1.86

creates per match

1.71

1.48

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.86

CFR Pforzheim

1.71

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.48

CFR Pforzheim

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

CFR Pforzheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw

64%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or CFR Pforzheim

77%

Draw or CFR Pforzheim

59%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

21%

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

82%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

51%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

24%

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

80%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

47%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

53%

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

41%

level

23%

CFR Pforzheim scores more

36%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff