CFR Pforzheim 3–1 FC Rielasingen-Arlen

CFR Pforzheim

FT

3 – 1

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

11/20/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CFR Pforzheim58%

×Draw20%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR PforzheimExpected goals in this matchFC Rielasingen-Arlen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.32

CFR Pforzheim

2.25

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.32

CFR Pforzheim creates 70% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

2.39

creates per match

1.26

1.39

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim

2.39

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.26

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim

1.39

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw

78%

CFR Pforzheim or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

80%

Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

42%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

36%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

89%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

65%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

39%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

73%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

38%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

73%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more

58%

level

20%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

22%

CFR Pforzheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff