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FC Renaissance vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
1/30/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Renaissance41%
×Draw27%
Anges Verts31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Renaissance
1.31
Anges Verts
1.10

FC Renaissance creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

FC Renaissance
0.79
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

FC Renaissance
1.57
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

FC Renaissance+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Renaissance ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Renaissance or draw
69%
FC Renaissance or Anges Verts
73%
Draw or Anges Verts
59%

Winning margin

FC Renaissance wins by 2+
19%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Renaissance 1+ goals
73%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
38%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
14%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
67%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
30%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
57%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Renaissance at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Renaissance attack 0.79 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + FC Renaissance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Renaissance scores more
41%
level
27%
Anges Verts scores more
31%

FC Renaissance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: FC Renaissance 1–1 Anges Verts

FC Renaissance and Anges Verts drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 30, 2026.