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Anges Verts vs FC Renaissance — Ligue 1 2019

Anges Verts
Anges Verts
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Renaissance
FC Renaissance
11/9/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Anges Verts34%
×Draw28%
FC Renaissance37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anges Verts
1.13
FC Renaissance
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Anges Verts
1.16
FC Renaissance
0.90

allows per match

Anges Verts
1.48
FC Renaissance
1.10

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par
FC Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

FC Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw
63%
Anges Verts or FC Renaissance
72%
Draw or FC Renaissance
66%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+
14%
FC Renaissance wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals
68%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
31%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
11%
FC Renaissance 1+ goals
70%
FC Renaissance 2+ goals
33%
FC Renaissance 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)
48%
FC Renaissance (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

FC Renaissance away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + FC Renaissance defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Renaissance attack 0.90 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Anges Verts scores more
34%
level
28%
FC Renaissance scores more
37%

FC Renaissance at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anges Verts vs FC Renaissance

Anges Verts beat FC Renaissance 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 9, 2025.