FC Rangers 0–1 Dynamo de Douala: Result & Stats

FC Rangers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo de Douala

3/29/2023

Elite Two · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Rangers33%

×Draw31%

Dynamo de Douala36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RangersExpected goals in this matchDynamo de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.03

FC Rangers

0.96

Dynamo de Douala

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

0.86

creates per match

0.89

1.18

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

FC Rangers

0.86

Dynamo de Douala

0.89

allows per match

FC Rangers

1.18

Dynamo de Douala

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rangers+0.00on par

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rangers ↓

Dynamo de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Rangers or draw

64%

FC Rangers or Dynamo de Douala

69%

Draw or Dynamo de Douala

67%

Winning margin

FC Rangers wins by 2+

12%

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Rangers 1+ goals

62%

FC Rangers 2+ goals

25%

FC Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

64%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

28%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Rangers (draw refunded)

47%

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rangers at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rangers attack 0.86 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Dynamo de Douala attack 0.89 + FC Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Rangers scores more

33%

level

31%

Dynamo de Douala scores more

36%

Dynamo de Douala at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff